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Economy ENG Other G20 / Global

The long view: Apocalypse now? The outlook for the global economy after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Willl the Covid-19 reshape the global economy? What are the most important hotspots and the blindspots revealed by this crisis? We tackle this issue in this article. Beyond the handling of the health crisis and the exceptional support measures designed to ensure that hundreds of millions or even billions of people around the world do not lose their livelihoods overnight, the most worrying concern are the medium- and long-term consequences of the crisis for the global economy.

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ENG Market Strategy MENA ENG Oil Russia & FSU United States

Market Focus: Is Saudi Arabia’s “oil put” strategy reasonable ?

Alexandre Kateb was interviewed on RT International about Saudi Arabia’s “oil put” strategy following the Kingdom’s decision to flood the market with cheap oil in order to squeeze the other major oil producers.

Categories
ENG Market Strategy Oil

Market Focus: Oil market situation and outlook

The International Energy Agency, which is the OECD’s Energy watchdog, has just released its Oil Report for March 2020. This release coincides with the worst fallout in oil prices in a single day in decades. This new monthly edition of the IEA’s flagship publication comes amid increasingly gloomy prospects for the world economy, amid a seemingly irrepressible spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

Categories
China Economy ENG United States

The long view: What is the real economic dependence of the United States on China?

In order to better measure the impact of value chains fragmentation, we conducted an “input-output” analysis to highlight the dependence of the US economy on Chinese output, branch by branch.

Categories
ENG Market Strategy MENA ENG Oil

Market Focus: OPEC+ Meeting in Vienna

Falling global oil demand in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak Global oil demand has been hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak which led to the shutdown of much of the Chinese economy in January and February and the subsequent impact on supply and demand in China and all around the world, as the epidemic […]

Categories
ENG Global Risks

Coronavirus: a simulation on R to understand

The purpose of this article is to present the results of a simple simulation carried out to better explain the R0 parameter that commands the spread of an epidemic such as that of the new Coronavirus Covid-19.

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Bonds Economy ENG Macro Analysis MENA ENG

Macro focus Lebanon’s debt mechanics backfire (Interview)

Economist Alexandre Kateb explains how the state has had to go into debt over the last thirty years, via its central bank, to attract foreign capital. Since trust has been broken, the banking system has been beset by numerous requests to withdraw money.
Consultant and specialist in the Arab world, Alexandre Kateb is a lecturer at Sciences-Po.

Categories
Bonds Economy ENG Latin America Market Strategy

Market Focus: Argentina’s upcoming sovereign debt restructuring

Once again, Argentina is embarked on a complicated debt restructuring process. This post exposes some key facts and figure and makes some observations from the macro and legal perspectives.

Categories
China Economy ENG Global Risks Macro Analysis Other G20 / Global

Understanding the dynamics and counting the cost of the coronavirus

The spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19) is currently the number one concern among healthcare specialists, policymakers, journalists, economic and market analysts and ordinary citizens alike.   The elucidation of the disease’s dynamics, death toll and impact on the Chinese and on the global economy are mobilising experts and analysts both in the economics and healthcare communities. […]

Categories
Economy ENG MENA ENG

The long view: What is Saudi Aramco really worth?

Saudi Aramco’s IPO was introduced as a central element of Vision 2030, the ambitious economic diversification strategy unveiled by Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in January 2016, when oil prices reached a historic low of $29 per barrel. The prospects suddenly darkened for Saudi Arabia and it was necessary to respond quickly. The crown prince’s […]