In order to contain the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, most European countries have implemented new lock-downs starting from Mid-October. As the Chart of the Week with data extracted from Google Mobility shows, the new “soft lockdowns” were overall significantly softer than the “hard lockdowns” implemented to contain the first wave of the pandemic, earlier this year in […]
Category: Economy
China is the world’s largest car market with over 25 million vehicles sold in 2019, of which 1.2 million is comprised of EVs – around 55% of all EVs sold in the world that year.
China’s support to its EV industry is moving from a quantitative to a qualitative approach and from op-down heavy handed industrial policies to a market based approach supported by environmental incentives. This is reflected in the New roadmap for New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) for the 2021-2035 that has been published by the State Council.
The Chinese authorities are increasing their oversight of the country’s large Internet platforms.
The publication of the Draft Measures for the regulation of online trading (网络交易监督管理办法 – 征求意见稿) by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation China’s version of a global regulatory effort to prevent and to sanction some abusive practices which stem from the Platforms market power and dominant positions. The latest regulations put their focus on multihoming and other principles which are key for ensuring a fair competition in the digital age. Article 31 of the Draft Regulations prohibits abuses of market dominance by online trading operators.
The measures taken by the Trump Administration against Chinese technology firms go far beyond Huawei. The latest casualty is SMIC, China’s flagship semiconductor fabrication firm. China’s semiconductors industry is now having difficult times. The US-China dispute has morphed into a commercial embargo against Chinese semiconductors industry. It involves non-Chinese and non-US companies, first and foremost Taiwan’s TSMC and Korea’s Samsung. It could have far reaching consequences, leading to a new restructuring of this global industry.
Revisiting George Kennan’s Containment Argument In February 1946, George Kennan, then an American diplomat in Moscow, sent his famed “Long Telegram“, which predicted the Soviets would only respond to force and that the best way to handle them would be through a long-term strategy of containment. The content of this telegram was later published by George […]
The 2020 US presidential election will probably be remembered as one of the most tense electoral contests in the nation’s history. Not only because it happens amid a global pandemic to which Americans paid a heavy human and material price. Political and social polarization is arguably at its highest level in the Land of the Free. There are many […]
The Congressional Budget Office published this week its annual Long-Term Budget Outlook presenting its projections of what federal deficits, debt, spending, and revenues would be for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change. Federal deficits are projected to increase from 5% of gross GDP in 2030 to 13% by 2050. The projected budget deficits would boost federal debt to 104% of GDP in 2021, to 107% of GDP – the highest in US history – in 2023, and to a whopping 195% of GDP by 2050.
Known as the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DC/EP), the CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) project piloted by the People’s Bank of China is so far the most advanced projet of its kind in the world. The introduction of a CBDC in the world’s most populous country and second largest economy may have far reaching consequences.
The released Official China NBS/CFLP PMI and the Caixin/IHS Markit PMI for August showed both that the Chinese economy was undergoing a robust growth recovery in August. However, the Official PMI shows that the economic recovery is uneven and is driven first and foremost by large manufacturing enterprises and by the construction sector., which benefited the most from the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Export orders continued their recovery initiated in June but the major driver of growth was domestic demand. Employment remained muted as companies still face uncertainties related to the COVI19 pandemic and its impact on economies across the world. Expectations remain anchored at a high level, although they edged lower compared to July and June.
The pace of recovery of the Eurozone economy following its sharp contraction in 2Q 2020 slowed down significantly in August. The Eurozone PMI Composite Index came up at 51.9, still largely in positive territory but significantly down from the 54.9 level reached in July. The Manufacturing Index remained on a healthy recovery trajectory thanks to the strong rebound observed in Germany (cf. our Macro Flash on German Manufacturing PMI) and despite the stagnation observed in France. However, the Services headline index came almost flat at 50.5, due to a marked growth slowdown in France and a return to contraction in Italy and Spain. Regardless of the softness observed in the Services sector, Confidence about the future continued to peak up reaching its highest level in two years. This confidence will need to be supported by additional monetary and fiscal stimulus, else it could fade out. Indeed, Eurozone inflation moved into negative territory for the first since 2016 and unemployment continued to grow across the Eurozone which bodes ill for domestic demand, especially given the record savings growth due to precautionary motives.