The FOMC Meeting convened on June 15-16 surprised the markets with ramped-up expectations for future interest rate hikes expressed by some of the participants to the Meeting. But the accompanying documents released after the meeting include other interesting insights, which help further assess the outlook for monetary policy going forward.
Category: Macro Analysis
China’s 2020 stimulus was modest. The country’s leadership learned the lessons of the 2009 giga stimulus and the imbalances that stemmed from it. More importantly, we show in this piece that the focus has shifted from credit control/guidance – both traditional and non conventional – to other policy instruments. The main candidate for these new policy instruments is fiscal policy. This should translate into a continuation of the substitution of private debt by government debt going forward.
China’s Consumer prices in March 2021 increased by 0.4% year-on-year and decreased by 0.5% month-on-month. China’s Ex-factory prices of industrial producers in March 2021 increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month.
An unprecedented fiscal support As of April 2021, the United States leads by a wide margin the Discretionary Fiscal Response to the COVID-19 Crisis enacted by the world’s Advanced Economies, especially when it comes to straightforward fiscal measures comprising additional spending and forgone fiscal revenue. As in other countries, the US fiscal policy response to […]
According to the report released on Friday, April 2 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 916,000 in March, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.0 percent. As per the BLS, “These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.” Job growth was widespread across the different sectors in March, with notable gains in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and construction.
As summed up by the New York Times, “China agreed to invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years in exchange for a steady supply of oil to fuel its growing economy under a sweeping economic and security agreement signed on Saturday.“ The partnership was signed by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Iranian […]
From January to February, due to factors such as the low base in the same period in 2020 , the year-on-year growth rate of China’s economy main indicators is relatively high. Source: NBS Press release 1. The growth of industrial production is accelerating, and the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry are growing well. Large enterprises […]
Premier Li Keqiang first outlined the measures taken by the Chinese government in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic whose origin is still unclear but whose first outburst has been witnessed in Wuhan, China. In the face of the pandemic, and in accordance with Party guidelines, the State has formulated and implemented macroeconomic policies which […]
The Consumer Confidence Survey of February 2021 was released on March 4th, 2021 1. Consumer Confidence Index, Consumer Perception Indices The Consumer Confidence Index (seasonally adjusted series) in February 2021 was 33.8, up 4.2 points from the previous month. The categories of the Consumer Perception Indices (seasonally adjusted series), which are comprised of the Consumer Confidence […]
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — FEBRUARY 2021 Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 379,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The labor market continued to reflect the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In February, most of the job gains occurred in […]