Macro Analysis

Macro Focus: An update on the US economy

Key takeaways

  • The softening of the US recovery is continuing apace with different components of the macroeconomic compound showing signs of weakness on the back of inflationary headwinds and the delta variant. The housing market in particular shows signs of slowing growth. The recovery of Consumer spending has also been delayed by the Delta variant.
  • Our output factor based on a dynamic combination of information extracted from around twenty indicators shows that the peak of the growth momentum is now behind us.
  • Our updated quarterly GDP forecast stands at 1.7 percent QoQ for Q3 2021 and at 1 percent QoQ for Q4 2021.
  • Our updated annual GDP forecast for the US economy currently stands at 6.1 percent for 2021 and at around 2.1 percent for 2022, all other things being equal (i.e. non change in fiscal or monetary policy).