Our Approach

We provide data-driven and evidence-driven research and advisory services to deliver actionable results. We are neither in the business of journalism nor in the field of academic research. Here are a few principles and beliefs that describe our approach:

1. Our world-view is grounded in a deep study of history, political philosophy and other social sciences. The understanding of the past is critical to develop a holistic vision of the present and to foresee the future.
2. We make an extensive use of advanced data analysis and modelling techniques (e.g. advanced financial econometrics, neural networks and deep learning algorithms, Monte Carlo simulations, ..).
3. We are independent. In an era of ever growing concentration and consolidation, we believe our independence is a core tenet of our raison d’être. It allows us to challenge the dominant narratives and agendas and to develop and uphold our contrarian views
4. We take sides and we make strategic calls. Our research is intended to inform decision-making. Hence, we amalgamate the results derived from our models with our worldview and our expert judgment. But we do it alongside a transparent Bayesian methodology, not in “black box” mode.
5. We constantly strive to learn from our successes and failures. Whenever our models or our worldview are out-of-tune, we don’t hesitate to improve them or to overhaul them in order to reflect any disruptions.