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Business & Geopolitics Business Intelligence Commodities MENA ENG Oil

Business & Geopolitics: The China-Iran strategic partnership

As summed up by the New York Times, “China agreed to invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years in exchange for a steady supply of oil to fuel its growing economy under a sweeping economic and security agreement signed on Saturday.“ The partnership was signed by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Iranian […]

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Business Intelligence China Commodities ENG Future of Energy & Mobility GCC Hydrogen Japan MENA ENG Oil Other G20 / Global United States

Business Intelligence: Is the Hydrogen Economy ready to take-off?

Hydrogen as a feedstock for the petrochemical industry Since the first demonstrations of water electrolysis some two hundred years ago, Hydrogen has witnessed many false dawns. As recorded by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its landmark report on the Future of Hydrogen, commissioned by the Japanese Presidency of the G20 in June 2019, hydrogen […]

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ENG GCC MENA ENG Video ENG

Global Diwan [Webinar Recording]: Future of Energy in the Middle East

The Multipolarity Report partnered with The Global Diwan on a webinar that covered business and strategic issues on energy developments in the Middle East. Below is a video recording of the webinar with the participation of Alexandre Kateb

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Business & Geopolitics Business Intelligence ENG GCC MENA ENG

Business & Geopolitics: The Abraham Accord and the future of the Middle East

For someone with a such a personal and professional interest in the future of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region – cf. my bio, my book “A New Development model for the MENA region”, published in French in 2019 with a foreword by Former WTO Managing-Director and current President of the Paris Peace Forum Pascal Lamy), and my 12-sessions long seminar on the MENA […]

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Economy ENG GCC Macro Analysis MENA ENG

Macro focus: How resilient are the GCC economies to the coronavirus recession?

The GCC countries have been hit hard by the most severe macroeconomic shock in their history as independent nations. The collapse of oil prices earlier this year dealt a heavy blow to oil exporters all around the world. While some of the GCC countries are among the most wealthy nations on earth, the oil crisis caused their fiscal balances and their current accounts to deteriorate sharply in the face of the twin oil shock and demand crisis provoked by the coronavirus. Beyond some common features, there are disparities in terms of resilience to the crisis and capacity to deal with its consequences. Leaving appart the special case of Dubai and to some extent Bahrain, the GCC governments must accelerate their efforts to transform their economies.

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ENG Market Strategy MENA ENG Oil United States

Market Focus: Why there is no end in sight for the oil war

A temporary production reduction agreement under current conditions is not necessarily in the interest of all stakeholders in the global oil industry
This deal will not solve the huge oversupply that is currently still building-up
The oil war is not due to misunderstandings or ego plays but to the intrinsically different strategies and motives of the key players at hand.
For all these reasons, an OPEC ++ coalition cannot not be sustained over time and its impact on oil prices is likely to be marginal and disappointing.

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ENG Market Strategy MENA ENG Oil Russia & FSU United States

Market Focus: Is Saudi Arabia’s “oil put” strategy reasonable ?

Alexandre Kateb was interviewed on RT International about Saudi Arabia’s “oil put” strategy following the Kingdom’s decision to flood the market with cheap oil in order to squeeze the other major oil producers.

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ENG Market Strategy MENA ENG Oil

Market Focus: OPEC+ Meeting in Vienna

Falling global oil demand in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak Global oil demand has been hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak which led to the shutdown of much of the Chinese economy in January and February and the subsequent impact on supply and demand in China and all around the world, as the epidemic […]

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Bonds Economy ENG Macro Analysis MENA ENG

Macro focus Lebanon’s debt mechanics backfire (Interview)

Economist Alexandre Kateb explains how the state has had to go into debt over the last thirty years, via its central bank, to attract foreign capital. Since trust has been broken, the banking system has been beset by numerous requests to withdraw money.
Consultant and specialist in the Arab world, Alexandre Kateb is a lecturer at Sciences-Po.

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Economy ENG MENA ENG

The long view: What is Saudi Aramco really worth?

Saudi Aramco’s IPO was introduced as a central element of Vision 2030, the ambitious economic diversification strategy unveiled by Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in January 2016, when oil prices reached a historic low of $29 per barrel. The prospects suddenly darkened for Saudi Arabia and it was necessary to respond quickly. The crown prince’s […]