Market focus: How tight is the US oil market?
Overall, crude oil inventories have moved back to their pre-COVID levels but gasoline inventories are still at the higher end of the 2015-2019 range. This has happened despite US refinery intake of crude oil still being below the pre-COVID 5-years range and after a severe production disruption in February 2021 as a result of an exceptional cold wave. Bottom line: the current level of oil prices is far from guaranteed. The reality check could be sobering, especially if the delta variant proves to be disruptive for the global recovery and if OPEC/OPEC+ does not manage to keep to its 2020 playbook
Market Focus: Making sense of the Commodities rally
Over the last few months, commodity prices have surged across the board. The S&P GSCI index and related subindexes have been soaring whether you look at Energy commodities, Grains and other Agricultural commodities, Industrial Metals or Precious Metals. While oil prices and the broader energy commodities basket have rebounded from their Covid-19 slump, the price surge has been particularly impressive for agricultural commodities and precious metals.
Business & Geopolitics: The China-Iran strategic partnership
As summed up by the New York Times, “China agreed to invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years in exchange for a steady supply of oil to fuel its growing economy under a sweeping economic and security agreement signed on Saturday.“ The partnership was signed by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Iranian […]
Business Intelligence: Is the Hydrogen Economy ready to take-off?
Hydrogen as a feedstock for the petrochemical industry Since the first demonstrations of water electrolysis some two hundred years ago, Hydrogen has witnessed many false dawns. As recorded by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its landmark report on the Future of Hydrogen, commissioned by the Japanese Presidency of the G20 in June 2019, hydrogen […]
Market focus: Gold above $2000/oz
Key takeaways The price of gold is testing new record highs as the yellow metal is expected to cross the $2000/oz mark for the first time in its modern history The seemingly unstoppable ascent of gold is due to a combination of negative real market interest rates and sliding dollar in the face of the […]
Macro flash: US Crude oil inventories at record level
US Crude oil inventories stood around 80 million barrels above their average level for the same week over the 2015-2019 period.
Market Focus: Oil market situation and outlook
IEA Monthly Oil Market Report April 2020 : Key takeways and our comments
Market Focus: Why there is no end in sight for the oil war
A temporary production reduction agreement under current conditions is not necessarily in the interest of all stakeholders in the global oil industry
This deal will not solve the huge oversupply that is currently still building-up
The oil war is not due to misunderstandings or ego plays but to the intrinsically different strategies and motives of the key players at hand.
For all these reasons, an OPEC ++ coalition cannot not be sustained over time and its impact on oil prices is likely to be marginal and disappointing.
Market Focus: Will OPEC++ stabilise the oil market ?
Will a compromise between OPEC (KSA), Russia and the United States stabilise the oil market? Interview on RT.com and further analysis
Market Focus: Is Saudi Arabia’s “oil put” strategy reasonable ?
Alexandre Kateb was interviewed on RT International about Saudi Arabia’s “oil put” strategy following the Kingdom’s decision to flood the market with cheap oil in order to squeeze the other major oil producers.